SAFE Manager Sentiment Index

How optimistic are Germany's top managers? The new SAFE Manager Sentiment Index sheds light on the optimism and willingness to invest, as well as the economic challenges seen by the top executives of companies listed in Germany.

The index identifies and counts negative and positive statements from management taken from quarterly and yearly financial reports and transcripts from analyst conferences of companies (earnings conference calls). In this way, it captures the level of optimism or pessimism in C-suites. The specific keywords used also provide an overview of which topics are currently of particular importance to managers.  

This approach can provide insights into the long-term development of stock returns and firms’ investment decisions. Research shows that managers can have overly extreme expectations, leading to sub-optimal investment decisions by companies.

What managers in Germany have on their minds: artificial intelligence and energy prices
SAFE Finance Blog by Sara Fadavi, Alexander Hillert and Vincent Lindner, 17 October 2025

Geopolitical risks, climate targets and digital transformation shape sentiment in German listed firms
SAFE Finance Blog by Sara Fadavi, Alexander Hillert and Elena Munteanu, 22 July 2025

From optimism to uncertainty: Corporate sentiment in early 2025
SAFE Finance Blog by Alexander Hillert and Elena Munteanu, 29 April 2025

Cautiously optimistic: What DAX managers expect from the next government
SAFE Finance Blog by Alexander Hillert, Vincent Lindner and Elena Munteanu, 10 April 2025

Trade tensions and tariff tactics: Insights from publicly listed German companies
SAFE Finance Blog by Alexander Hillert and Jonas Schlegel, 17 February 2025

• The index is based on scientific research: The research results of the reference paper (Jiang et al. 2019) have shown for the US market that the sentiment conveyed in the analyzed reports correlates positively with the company's short-term investment-spending, but negatively with future share performance and profits in the following year. Managers therefore appear to be overoptimistic and tend to expand too much. ­The overinvestment leads to lower corporate profits in the future, which is ultimately reflected in lower stock returns. The evaluation of the German data for the period from 2003 to 2024 shows the same qualitative result as the reference paper for the US and thus supports the economic correlation found.
   
• A stable data foundation: The SAFE Index is based on financial reports and transcripts from analyst conferences of companies from the DAX indices (DAX, MDAX, SDAX, TecDAX) since 2003. The sample of companies thus remains constant and therefore comparable. Even companies that were not successful and no longer exist or are no longer listed in one of the indices are included until they leave the stock exchange.
   
• Direct statements from top managers. Other indices are based on surveys that are most likely not answered personally by CEOs. In addition, they usually only show sentiment, not the causes. The texts used for the SAFE Index, on the other hand, show what managers are concerned about and what they go into detail on in their own words.