In February, the SAFE Manager Sentiment Index increased from +0.31 to +0.51 points, indicating that the results and outlook reported by executives of listed companies in Germany are getting more positive. In the January earnings calls, managers repeatedly highlighted good business figures for the year 2025, improvements in efficiency, but also challenging exchange rate effects.
“The upward trend in the SAFE Index in the recent months shows that managers have become increasingly optimistic about their firms' prospects,” says Florian Heider, Scientific Director of the Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, “Managers use language that signals a solid current situation and a favorable outlook for 2026.”
Companies report strong business results for 2025, reflected in frequently used positive expressions such as “progress made,” “strong momentum,” “operational efficiencies,” and “significantly improved.” One manager emphasized: “We delivered record profits in 2025 ...”, while others highlighted strong earnings growth.
Efficiency gains reduce costs
Executives pointed to structural improvements in cost bases and ongoing efficiency programs. One manager noted: “Our 2025 cost base is nearly EUR 1 billion lower than in 2021.” Another described how efficiency gains support profitability: “We self-funded this growth by achieving EUR 2.5 billion of operational efficiencies ...”
Managers frequently confirmed past business forecasts and expected further improvements in profitability, supported by continued cost discipline. One executive explained: “We also set out our plans to further improve our cost income ratio to below 60% from 64% in 2025.” Such plans to further improve operational efficiency indicate that some managers expect in particular AI-driven productivity gains in the future.
Impacts of foreign exchange factors
At the same time, executives mentioned headwinds from foreign exchange effects. Especially the weak US dollar is weighing on firms’ profits. As one manager noted: “Net profits are impacted for sure by FX, FX losses.” Another mentioned stable revenues in 2025 “despite lower rates and FX pressures.”
The SAFE Index in February reflects only the start of the earnings season. “In January only a few firms hosted earnings calls covering the 2025 full-year results. The firms are mainly from the financial and IT sectors, which are traditionally among the first sectors to report their earnings. The SAFE Index in March will provide the complete picture across all industries. It will be interesting to see whether manager sentiment in the other sectors increased as well or whether there is divergence across sectors,” says Alexander Hillert, who leads the research team behind the SAFE Index.
The SAFE Manager Sentiment Index
The SAFE Manager Sentiment Index measures the optimism or pessimism expressed by executives of listed companies in Germany monthly. Developed by Alexander Hillert and his team at the Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, the Index is based on automated text analysis that evaluates positive and negative statements in financial reports and earnings calls. The Index is based on a three-month rolling window of data.
Since May 2025, the team has systematically measured uncertainty expressed in financial communication, using the Loughran and McDonald Dictionary of Uncertainty Words. This analysis captures uncertainty based on narratives – how often corporate leaders express ambiguity, risk, or doubt. It enables pinning down what top managers are uncertain about.
The future scheduled release dates are:
- Tuesday, 10 March 2026
- Tuesday, 14 April 2026
- Monday, 11 May 2026
- Wednesday, 10 June 2026
- Thursday, 9 July 2026
