In March, the SAFE Manager Sentiment Index increased from +0.51 to +0.67 points. The underlying data – covering the period until the end of February – contains a broad range of results across all sectors which show that, on average, listed companies in Germany have started 2026 on a confident note, despite geopolitical challenges. The Index does not yet reflect the impact of the additional conflicts in the Middle East. The rise is driven by more positive statements by managers in earnings conference calls. After a good start, many managers confirmed their earnings guidance for 2026 and some even increased their targets, indicating increased managerial optimism about the future.
“The strong results reported for 2025 led to optimism among managers regarding the outlook for 2026,” says Florian Heider, Scientific Director of the Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE. “At the same time, managers continue to refer to a difficult environment shaped by geopolitical uncertainty. The latest escalation in the Middle East, while not yet reflected in our data, shows that those cautious attitudes are well founded.”
Record results fuel optimism
The improvement in sentiment is largely linked to the full-year earnings season. Managers frequently highlighted strong or even record business performance, reflected in expressions such as “strong results,” “record results,” and “good performance.” One executive noted: “In 2025, we achieved record-breaking top and bottom line financial results, successfully executing our strategy and delivering on our guidance.”
Executives also repeatedly emphasized a “good start” to 2026 and confirmed their outlook for the year ahead, reflected in frequently used expressions such as “good start,” “strong start,” and “confirm guidance.” As one manager explained: “Following our strong start to fiscal ’26, we now expect to reach the upper half of our revenue growth guidance...”
Challenging environment persists – even before recent escalation
At the same time, executives continue to stress that these results are achieved despite a challenging market environment, a phrase that appears frequently in earnings calls. Companies refer to macroeconomic headwinds, negative currency effects linked to the weak US dollar, and in some cases weaker demand. For example, one executive reported a “… substantial currency adjusted sales decline of nearly minus 21% in Q4, leading to a sales decline in full year 2025 of around 8%.” These examples illustrate that, while the overall tone in firms’ financial market communication has improved, companies remain cautious about the broader economic environment.
“The SAFE Index in March provides the first comprehensive view on manager sentiment after firms from all sectors reported their 2025 full year results. The picture is predominantly positive, driven by strong earnings and encouraging guidance for 2026. At the same time, the geopolitical environment and foreign exchange pressures remain sources of uncertainty that companies continue to navigate carefully,” says Alexander Hillert, who leads the research team behind the SAFE Index at the Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
The SAFE Manager Sentiment Index
The SAFE Manager Sentiment Index measures the optimism or pessimism expressed by executives of listed companies in Germany monthly. Developed by Alexander Hillert and his team at the Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, the Index is based on automated text analysis that evaluates positive and negative statements in financial reports and earnings calls. The Index is based on a three-month rolling window of data.
Since May 2025, the team has systematically measured uncertainty expressed in financial communication, using the Loughran and McDonald Dictionary of Uncertainty Words. This analysis captures uncertainty based on narratives – how often corporate leaders express ambiguity, risk, or doubt. It enables pinning down what top managers are uncertain about.
The future scheduled release dates are:
- Tuesday, 14 April 2026
- Monday, 11 May 2026
- Wednesday, 10 June 2026
- Thursday, 9 July 2026
