The SAFE Manager Sentiment Index reached +0.23 points in December. Managers of companies listed in Germany used less negative language in their financial market communication. The tone of financial reports improved from -1.38 to -1.07 points, as did that of earnings conference calls. There, the value increased even more significantly from +0.90 to +1.43 points.
“The third quarter was significantly better than the chaotic second quarter that was characterized by geopolitical uncertainty,” says Florian Heider, Scientific Director of the Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE. The improvement is reflected in the SAFE Index, which takes into account texts published between September and November.
This upswing in the index is primarily due to numerous earnings calls at which companies presented their third-quarter results. As one manager noted, “The […] numbers published today show an outstanding performance with a 19% increase in operational net profit […].” Likewise, another emphasized, “We see sustained strength in our bottom line […].” Earnings growth even significantly exceeded revenue growth in his company.
“Many executives are feeling optimistic and reaffirming their profit expectations for 2025. This shows that the trade agreement between the US and the EU is reducing uncertainty and creating more predictable conditions”, says Alexander Hillert, Professor of Finance and Data Science at the Leibniz Institute SAFE. “Expectations for the next fiscal year are also promising.”
One manager said, “We have already proven several times in the past that we can deliver a strong finish. We are therefore confident that we will be able to achieve our EBT target within the specified range.” Another company statement said, “We continue to be very confident to again achieve all our financial targets for the current financial year.”
Less uncertainty, clearer communication
The analyzed reports and transcripts of earnings calls contain far fewer negative terms such as “negative effects,” “high losses,” and “weak demand.” Word pairs expressing uncertainty also occur less frequently, reaching their lowest level since November 2024.
Nevertheless, despite these signs of improvement, the top executives of listed companies in Germany remain cautious. Several executives spoke of “supply chain disruptions” and continued to see “geopolitical tensions.”
“Companies are keeping a close eye on their supply chains after the recent semiconductor shortages,” says Hillert. The positive outlook came with a cautious note, considering the upheavals in the first half of the year. Although the agreement between the EU and the US could create more reliable conditions, its content does not meet all expectations.
The SAFE Manager Sentiment Index
The SAFE Manager Sentiment Index measures the optimism or pessimism expressed by executives of listed companies in Germany monthly. Developed by Alexander Hillert and his team at the Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, the Index is based on automated text analysis that evaluates positive and negative statements in financial reports and earnings calls. The Index is based on a three-month rolling window of data.
Since May 2025, the team has systematically measured uncertainty expressed in financial communication, using the Loughran and McDonald Dictionary of Uncertainty Words. This analysis captures uncertainty based on narratives – how often corporate leaders express ambiguity, risk, or doubt. It enables pinning down what top managers are uncertain about.
The future scheduled release dates are:
- Thursday, 15 January 2026
- Tuesday, 10 February 2026
- Tuesday, 10 March 2026
