Some companies postpone investment decisions, while others report record sales. This mixed picture currently shapes the statements made by executives of listed companies in Germany. Geopolitical uncertainty caused by the war in the Middle East dampens many client companies’ willingness to invest. Nevertheless, some companies are performing well.
The SAFE Index, which is based on an analysis of earnings calls and the financial reports of listed companies, declines in July from -0.04 points to -0.10 points. This slightly negative development suggests that managers’ expectations for the coming months remain cautious.
“Companies vary in how they describe the economic situation at the moment. In some industries, customers postpone investment projects, while other industries continue to develop robustly,” says Florian Heider, Scientific Director of the Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
Different developments across industries
The transcripts from earnings calls included in the July analysis confirm the heterogenous picture seen in recent months. An executive from the mechanical engineering industry sees no “signs of a material improvement in the economic environment” for 2026 and 2027 and expects “continued challenging conditions.” Another executive from the business-to-consumer segment, by contrast, emphasized that the company had “recorded the highest quarterly net sales in our company’s history,” with “May being the strongest month ever.”
Alexander Hillert, Professor of Finance and Data Science at SAFE, says: “Since the start of the war in Iran, there have been signs of greater caution regarding investments. In the business-to-business segment in particular, many customers postpone investment decisions. The second-quarter results will show how this reluctance to invest, along with higher commodity prices, affects firms’ revenue and profits.”
Starting in the second half of July, listed companies will publish their second-quarter results. These results will reveal whether the developments discussed during the earnings calls are already reflected in companies’ financial results. The August update of the SAFE Index will provide a comprehensive picture of the second quarter and put these developments into context.
The SAFE Manager Sentiment Index
The SAFE Manager Sentiment Index measures the optimism or pessimism expressed by executives of listed companies in Germany monthly. Developed by Alexander Hillert and his team at the Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, the Index is based on automated text analysis that evaluates positive and negative statements in financial reports and earnings calls. The Index is based on a three-month rolling window of data.
Since May 2025, the team has systematically measured uncertainty expressed in financial communication, using the Loughran and McDonald Dictionary of Uncertainty Words. This analysis captures uncertainty based on narratives – how often corporate leaders express ambiguity, risk, or doubt. It enables pinning down what top managers are uncertain about.
The future scheduled release dates are:
- Tuesday, August 11, 2026
- Thursday, September 10, 2026
- Thursday, October 8, 2026
- Tuesday, November 10, 2026
- Thursday, December 10, 2026
