In January, the SAFE Manager Sentiment Index reached +0.31 points, compared to +0.23 points in December 2025. After a challenging year of adapting to new global and economic realities, the team behind the SAFE Manager Sentiment Index at the Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE examined how managers of listed companies in Germany are looking ahead to the new year. The analysis of 134 earnings conference calls from Q4 2025 of publicly listed firms in Germany shows that , while executives are approaching 2026 with cautious optimism, their perceptions of the impact of geopolitical and economic policies in Germany differ.
Various executives expect good profitability and confirm their guidance for 2026, which explains the Index’s increase. As one manager noted, “(...) It’s very clear that we also expect an underlying margin improvement, not only for ’26.” Another explained, “(…) for 2026, we expect an acceleration of organic sales growth and a further margin improvement, so we fully confirm all our directions.”
“A more optimistic sentiment often goes hand in hand with higher investment. For three months now, the SAFE Index has shown that managers are speaking more positively. We also finally await more growth in the German economy again,” says SAFE Director Florian Heider.
Effects of the geopolitical environment
Further topics on the managers ’ minds for the year ahead are the geopolitical environment, the economic situation in Germany with a special focus on the effects of the stimulus package as well as company specific effects.
Managers’ views on the geopolitical and economic policy environment vary across firms. Some take a neutral stance: “We believe the environment will be as tough as it is in 2025. Will it be worse? I don’t think so.” Others are looking ahead with more caution: “(…) nobody knows how the geopolitical unrest and also the tariff situation at the end of the day for the next year impacts our numbers in the same way than the economy.” Another manager sees the situation slightly more optimistically and considers it a little more predictable: “(…) we are not anymore in the full escalation process. […] That should give a little bit more planning certainty for all of us (…).”
“Overall, managers are approaching 2026 with cautious optimism,” says Alexander Hillert, Professor of Finance and Data Science at the Leibniz Institute SAFE. “Although 2025 was challenging, higher predictability of the market environment and government measures are creating conditions that allow companies to plan with more clarity.”
German government stimulus raises cautious expectations
Managers are also considering the potential effects of measures implemented by the German government. A manager from the real estate sector said, “we continue to identify more opportunities with the new regulation in Germany especially the Bau-Turbo […]. Government stimulus programs are expected to drive investment in critical infrastructure and renewed private sector activity is beginning to show in the macro data.”
Nevertheless, some executives remain cautious about immediate effects. “Just what I can say at this point of time is that we don’t see that materializing in Germany with regards, let’s say, to a higher order intake,” one manager added. Another manager explained: “(…) on the German market, we don’t see the progress we are waiting for since quite some time yet.”
Not all sectors are equally confident yet. 2026 could show the first signs of an economic recovery provided that uncertainty remains contained and announced policy measures gradually take effect.
The SAFE Manager Sentiment Index
The SAFE Manager Sentiment Index measures the optimism or pessimism expressed by executives of listed companies in Germany monthly. Developed by Alexander Hillert and his team at the Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, the Index is based on automated text analysis that evaluates positive and negative statements in financial reports and earnings calls. The Index is based on a three-month rolling window of data.
Since May 2025, the team has systematically measured uncertainty expressed in financial communication, using the Loughran and McDonald Dictionary of Uncertainty Words. This analysis captures uncertainty based on narratives – how often corporate leaders express ambiguity, risk, or doubt. It enables pinning down what top managers are uncertain about.
The future scheduled release dates are:
- Tuesday, 10 February 2026
- Tuesday, 10 March 2026
- Tuesday, 14 April 2026
