Subjective Survival Beliefs and Savings Decisions
|Researchers:||Nils Grevenbrock, Max Groneck, Alexander Ludwig, Alexander Zimper|
Topic & Objectives
Quantitatively characterize biases between subjective survival beliefs and objective survival probabilities and the implications of these biases for savings behavior. Key Findings
Young people tend to underestimate their survival chances old people tend to overestimate them. This implies too little savings for retirement at young ages and asset decumulation at a too low speed at old age.
Conjecture: Optimal policy mix characterized by PAYG pension system and capital income taxes or, as an alternative, age dependent capital income taxes with negative capital income taxes (subsidies) in young age and positive taxes in old age.
Related Published Papers
|Max Groneck, Alexander Ludwig, Alexander Zimper||A Life-Cycle Model with Ambiguous Survival Beliefs|
Journal of Economic Theory
|2016||Macro Finance||Cumulative prospect theory, Choquet expected utility, Dynamic inconsistency, Life-cycle hypothesis, Saving puzzles|
Related Working Papers
|73||Max Groneck, Alexander Ludwig, Alexander Zimper||A Life-Cycle Model with Ambiguous Survival Beliefs||2014||Macro Finance||Cumulative prospect theory, Choquet expected utility, Dynamic inconsistency, Life-cycle hypothesis, Saving puzzles|
|169||Max Groneck, Alexander Ludwig, Alexander Zimper||Who Saves More, the Naive or the Sophisticated Agent?||2017||Macro Finance||Survival beliefs; Ambiguity; Choquet expected utility; Dynamic inconsistency|
|200||Nils Grevenbrock, Max Groneck, Alexander Ludwig, Alexander Zimper||Cognition, Optimism and the Formation of Age-Dependent Survival Beliefs||2018||Macro Finance||Subjective Survival Beliefs, Probability Weighting Function, Conrmatory Bias, Cognition, Optimism, Pessimism|
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