Subjective Survival Beliefs and Savings Decisions

Projekt Start:04/2014
Status:Beendet
Forscher:Nils Grevenbrock, Max Groneck, Alexander Ludwig, Alexander Zimper
Kategorie: Macro Finance
Finanziert von:LOEWE

Topic & Objectives

Quantitatively characterize biases between subjective survival beliefs and objective survival probabilities and the implications of these biases for savings behavior. Key Findings

Key Findings

Young people tend to underestimate their survival chances old people tend to overestimate them. This implies too little savings for retirement at young ages and asset decumulation at a too low speed at old age. 

Policy Implications

Conjecture: Optimal policy mix characterized by PAYG pension system and capital income taxes or, as an alternative, age dependent capital income taxes with negative capital income taxes (subsidies) in young age and positive taxes in old age.

Zugehörige publizierte Papers

Forscher/innenTitelJahrProgrammbereichKeywords
Max Groneck, Alexander Ludwig, Alexander ZimperA Life-Cycle Model with Ambiguous Survival Beliefs
Journal of Economic Theory
2016 Macro Finance Cumulative prospect theory, Choquet expected utility, Dynamic inconsistency, Life-cycle hypothesis, Saving puzzles

Zugehörige Working Papers

Nr.Forscher/innenTitelJahrProgrammbereichKeywords
73Max Groneck, Alexander Ludwig, Alexander ZimperA Life-Cycle Model with Ambiguous Survival Beliefs2014 Macro Finance Cumulative prospect theory, Choquet expected utility, Dynamic inconsistency, Life-cycle hypothesis, Saving puzzles
169Max Groneck, Alexander Ludwig, Alexander ZimperWho Saves More, the Naive or the Sophisticated Agent?2017 Macro Finance Survival beliefs; Ambiguity; Choquet expected utility; Dynamic inconsistency
200Nils Grevenbrock, Max Groneck, Alexander Ludwig, Alexander ZimperCognition, Optimism and the Formation of Age-Dependent Survival Beliefs2018 Macro Finance Subjective Survival Beliefs, Probability Weighting Function, Conrmatory Bias, Cognition, Optimism, Pessimism
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