The SAFE Manager Sentiment Index declined from +0.37 points in October to +0.28 points in November. The Index remains in positive territory, but the improvement seen since the summer has paused. The share of uncertainty words used in earnings calls was virtually unchanged at 1.51 percent, compared with 1.52 percent in October.
The slight decline contrasts with the recent improvement in other German business indicators. However, it should not yet be interpreted as a broad reversal. Only 26 earnings calls entered the November calculation, so the third-quarter reporting season is not yet fully reflected in the Index. The new calls suggest a more differentiated assessment of business conditions, with positive developments in some areas and challenging market conditions in others: “strong performance” appeared 26 times, “strong growth” 22 times and “growth opportunities” 19 times. At the same time, “sales declined” appeared 23 times, “sales decline” 10 times and “challenging market” 10 times.
“The November reading suggests that the improvement in manager sentiment has lost some momentum, but there is no sign of a broad deterioration,” says Florian Heider, Scientific Director of the Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE. “Many companies continue to report strong third-quarter results, while others face weak demand and difficult markets.”
Strong results and weak markets side by side
The earnings calls illustrate how uneven current business conditions are. One manager described the third quarter as “another strong quarter” with healthy profit growth. Another pointed to a “strong order book” and said that “demand remains strong across our businesses.” By contrast, one company reported that sales in a business segment “declined by almost 20%,” partly because of a challenging market environment. Another manager referred to softer consumer demand in China.
“The Index captures the balance of these very different experiences,” says Alexander Hillert, Professor of Finance and Data Science at SAFE. “Strong growth and order books in some businesses coexist with falling sales and weak demand elsewhere. These mixed signals help explain why overall sentiment remains positive but is no longer improving.”
Cautious outlook despite solid current performance
The calls also suggest that managers are careful when looking beyond the current quarter. One executive said the company continued to see “attractive growth opportunities,” but expected 2027 revenue to be at the lower end of its previously communicated range because of the macroeconomic environment. Another manager said that stronger volume growth and margin expansion could return, but that it was “too early to tell right now.”
The stable uncertainty measure supports the view that the decline in sentiment is not being driven by a new wave of geopolitical or macroeconomic uncertainty. Instead, managers appear to be reassessing how strong demand and earnings will be across individual markets and business lines.
"As more third-quarter earnings calls will enter the data, we will get a much broader picture of whether the current pause in sentiment is temporary or whether weaker demand is becoming more widespread,” explains Hillert.
The SAFE Manager Sentiment Index
The SAFE Manager Sentiment Index measures the optimism or pessimism expressed by executives of listed companies in Germany monthly. Developed by Alexander Hillert and his team at the Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, the Index is based on automated text analysis that evaluates positive and negative statements in financial reports and earnings calls. The Index is based on a three-month rolling window of data.
Since May 2025, the team has systematically measured uncertainty expressed in financial communication, using the Loughran and McDonald Dictionary of Uncertainty Words. This analysis captures uncertainty based on narratives – how often corporate leaders express ambiguity, risk, or doubt. It enables pinning down what top managers are uncertain about.
The future scheduled release dates are:
• Thursday, 10 December 2026
