|Raphael Abiry, Christian Geppert, Dirk Krueger, Philipp Krüger, Alexander Ludwig
Topic & Objectives
Quantification of the effects of demographic change on risky and risk-free asset returns.
Demographic change will lead to a reduction of returns. Risk-free interest rate decreases by more than risky returns because households invest more strongly in risk-free assets as they become older which increases the price thus decreasing the return.
Policy debate on how to finance old-age insurance must explicitly take return differentials between risk-free and risky returns into account.
|Raphael Abiry, Christian Geppert, Alexander Ludwig
|Secular Stagnation? Growth, Asset Returns and Welfare in the Next Decades: First Results
|secular stagnation; demographic change; overlapping generations; natural rate; equity premium; growth; welfare; human capital
|Demographischer Wandel: Kapitalrenditen, Löhne und Verteilungswirkungen
White Paper No. 38