Energy Economics, 111, 2022

Time-Varying Granger Causality Tests for Applications in Global Crude Oil Markets: A Study on the DCC-MGARCH Hong Test

The analysis of causality among oil prices and, in general, between financial and economic variables is of central relevance in applied economic studies. The recent contribution of Lu et al. (2014) proposes a new causality test, the DCC-MGARCH Hong test. We show that the critical values of the test statistic should be evaluated through simulations to avoid potential Type I errors. We also note that rolling Hong tests represent a more viable solution in the presence of short-lived causality periods.