SAFE Visitors Program joint with Finance Seminar: Daniel Andrei (McGill University)
Title: The Risk of Schumpeterian Competition
Speaker: Daniel Andrei (McGill University) presents a joint work with Bruce I. Carlin
While previous work has focused on the rewards of creative destruction, this paper explores how Schumpeterian competition aects risk. We analyze a game in a Lucas endowment economy in which non-cooperative agents compete for the rents of a consumption stream and bear the risk imposed by creative destruction. Compared to rst best, the quest for oligopoly rents leads to over-investment in uncertain projects, which magnies both the volatility of future consumption and the uncertainty about the expected growth rate of the economy. Within the context of our model, this results in spikes in the pricedividend ratio. If competition for rents is suciently intense, the elevated price-dividend ratio predicts negative future expected excess returns, which is consistent with the patterns typically observed during periods of marked technological change.
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